EDITORIAL
Playing with fire
President of Brazil celebrates Jair Bolsonaro's definitive arrest
The euphoria shown by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at the arrest of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), and the generals involved in the so-called “coup plot” is seen in the corridors of the Planalto Palace as the certainty of an easier electoral victory in 2026. Classifying the event as a “lesson in democracy for the world” and praising the Federal Supreme Court (STF), Lula seems to believe that the political annihilation of his rival guarantees a smooth path to re-election.
However, behind Bolsonaro’s arrest lies a high-risk political trap. What Lula is celebrating is not the end of a process carried out by his direct allies, but the conclusion of an operation that, in reality, is being conducted by a sector hostile to PT and which has a well-defined plan for 2026: the rise of a unified right-wing alternative with a neoliberal profile.
The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is the name that best encapsulates this new articulation. At the same time as he pays vassalage to Bolsonaro’s leadership – respecting his political capital to “smooth over the rough edges” – Tarcísio is projecting a candidate with a furiously neoliberal discourse. After the ex-president’s arrest, Tarcísio said that the right-wing camp has until March to organize and that his project will “win next year”, with the mission of “ridding Brazil of the PT”.
Bolsonaro’s arrest, instead of eliminating the risk to the left, is ironically eliminating the contradictions that prevented the bourgeoisie and business sectors from uniting around a single right-wing name.
Jair Bolsonaro is the right’s most important electoral partner, but at the same time, the traditional right and big business saw him as a risk to their plans. By giving legitimacy and endorsing the operation that culminated in Bolsonaro’s arrest and the disorganization of his hard core, Lula is inadvertently paving the way for the unification of the right around a “palatable” name.
The real threat to Lula is not the disorganized Bolsonaro, but the disciplined right. President Lula, in celebrating Bolsonaro’s proscription by the 2016 coup plotters, is playing with fire. He runs the risk of giving legitimacy to a maneuver that could ultimately result in a coup d’état.
